Vexed Bermoothes

Today’s Royal Gazette trumpets the unsurprising news that a PLP poll conducted by a PLP candidate predicts the PLP will win the election.

The poll is a red herring – it’s not so much the national total that counts, but who wins the most constituencies. It was very close last time and probably will be again. Even at the national level, technically this poll was indecisive as the large Undecided count would allow either party to win.

However unusual it was of the RG to run such suspect numbers, I guess it isn’t surprising that the PLP would try this one on. After all, Bermudians are used to getting funny numbers. You know, numbers that hype improved graduation rates but later reveal an education system in crisis. Or numbers that trumpet a boom in visitors but later reveal a drop in tourists. Or numbers that compare salaries of blacks against whites without breaking out the Bermudian and expat differences. The list goes on and on.

You cannot measure progress to goals unless you have good statistics. The problem in Bermuda is that the public does not have confidence in the official statistics, as these yardsticks have been so perverted by political spin.

We have a competent Statistics Department, but it reports directly to the Premier (say no more). Moreover, most Government departments are allowed to generate and report their own statistics. Crime figures, for example, come from the government department charged with fighting crime. The temptation to “spin” the facts is intense, and typically only summary data is made public, making it very difficult to see what’s going on.

The Statistics Act must be updated to improve the independence and objectivity of government statistics. The numbers must be produced by professionals free from political interference such that:

• The Stats team independently chooses what data to compile (ensuring that the process and datasets are not manipulated to suit a political goal).
• The Stats team releases the data, which will be available to the public and the Government at the same time (reducing the urge to pick out the most flattering data and craft a message for public consumption).
• The Stats team independently chooses how to present the data (reducing the spin surrounding statistics – by the time the public have had time to digest the numbers behind the hype, the news has moved on).
• The Stats team chooses the release dates for statistics (reversing the trend of choosing good days for burying bad news).
• A independent watchdog can annually comment on the quality of the statistics and make binding recommendations for improvement.