Vexed Bermoothes

Politics links to an academic dissertation on group identity that uses the PLP’s electoral tactics as a case study:

A look at a few examples of the rhetoric at the rallies and in the campaign generally makes it clear that voters were being asked to make an affirmation of their [group or racial] identity with their vote not simply returning an incumbent government to power or making a statement of party loyalty…

The effect of such identity appeals is that a voter no longer responds continuously to small differences between candidate platforms. Rather, a voter sticks with the candidate favored by her social group until the difference between platforms exceeds some threshold of magnitude that is [itself raised by] the intensity of group-based rhetoric.

The reasons for the sudden increase in race-based rhetoric by the PLP in the lead up to our 2008 election are obvious. Credible allegations of corruption were harming the PLP’s claims to be responsible managers, while the UBP was staking its campaign on a detailed platform of managerial tasks. By emotionally refocussing on group identity, the PLP rendered the UBP’s campaign irrelevant. Ironically, the UBP’s tactic of pursuing a calm tone, probably worked against them as it appeared wishy-washy against the intensity of the PLP rhetoric.

It is questionable whether the UBP will ever be able to “prove itself reformed” and vaccinated against such attacks. Indeed, the authors of this dissertation predict that the dynamics of group politics are typically broken by the increased participation of independent candidates. How that will happen in Bermuda is not clear. But it is certainly why the PLP whip is so tight: if parliamentary members diverge, it breaks the illusion of unity. That’s why Renee Webb became untouchable when she started to speak her mind. It’s why independent-minded Stuart Hayward drives them nuts.

A natural result is that it never hurts competing candidates to engage in maximal group rhetoric, at least so long as political speech is costless.

This dynamic explains a few other PLP moves as well. CITV and HOTT are important vehicles for expressing group identity in the PLP terms. In fact, I think popular DJ Thaao Dill got shortchanged with his Senatorship: I do not believe that Ewart Brown would have been re-elected without his constant and affable boosting of the premier to his on-air “family.”

It also explains why Dr. Brown has sharpened his knives for the Royal Gazette and other third-party media in Bermuda: given the weakness of the UBP, the media are the sole independent voice in Bermuda. They are the sole questioners of his performance as well as the “costs of his political speech.” Dr. Brown feels so threatened by them that he feels his only options are to use Government powers to kill them or to replace them with an entity that sees the world through his lens of “group identity.”