Vexed Bermoothes

Blustery Opinions From Bermuda

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Employment Scene

March 4th, 2010 · Economy

The PLP must think that Bermudians can’t do math, as they try and paint a happy face on the choking economy that lies at their feet.

Thus, when folks like Larry Burchall start pinning them down on the numbers, they have little option but to unleash the Minister for Slander and Propaganda.

In my previous post I highlighted the vast importance of international business on the Bermudian economy, and why the PLP’s forays into expat-bashing and independence are self-destructive.

I have previously written about the unhealthy effects that Government’s hiring binge over the past five years has on the economy.  Not only has this left fewer tax payers carrying the weight of an inefficient civil service, it masks troubles in the local employment stats.

A reader points out table 3 of the National Economic Report.

Bermuda’s total employment loss of 1.8% is misleading.   These have been boom years for Government hiring – and if you back out the areas that are primarily funded by taxpayers (such as public administration, education, social work etc.) – a different picture emerges.

The total jobs as reported in 2008 were 40,213. If you remove the jobs from the sections outlined above (4,223 + 3,279) then you are left with 32,711 private sector jobs.

Now if you apply the same formula to the 2009 projections you get projected net loss of 1,152 jobs in the private sector (39,502 – 4,371 – 3,626 = 31,559).

In greater detail:

International Business lost 328 jobs  or 28% of the 1,152
Construction lost 153 jobs  or 13% of the 1,152
Hotels lost 189 jobs or 16% of the 1,152
Transport and Communications lost 111 jobs or 10% of the 1,152
Business Activities lost 301 jobs or 26% of the 1,152

Based on the average salary of $55,000 that’s $63,000,000 not going into the economy … not to mention the taxes not being paid to fuel that thirsty Government and trips to India.

These stats are not fantasy.  They come from the Ministry of Finance.

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Who Pays The Bills?

March 3rd, 2010 · Bermuda Politics, Economy

If you ever had a doubt regarding the importance of international business to Bermuda, look at the following chart which shows economic activity in Bermuda for the last 5 years.  (It is excerpted from the National Economic Report).

The only areas that show significant growth are directly related to the international business sector … accounting for half the economy … and to a lesser extent the fatcat public sector.  All others are flat.

The chart also shows that the economy was already slipping back in 2008.  You may recall that, during this period, warnings from the sector and the UBP’s Bob Richards were derisively swept away by Government as fear mongering.  Ooops, guess we know who is more trustworthy now don’t we?

This chart underlines the importance for our Government to work more cooperatively with that vital part of our economy, instead of constantly shaking the tree.

Paula Cox says don’t worry about our $1,000,000,000 public debt because it’s only 10-15% of our GDP.  Yeah, well, imagine what will happen to that percent if the international business shrinks?  We’d make Greece look good by comparison.

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Something Smells

March 2nd, 2010 · Economy

The PLP’s proposed 2010 budget is inept, inadequate, and inane.  It is an administrative eructation (see I’m starting to talk like Paula Cox!!)

It does not attempt to restrain Government’s lavish spending, or even make a believable case that better financial controls will be put in.

It continues the trend of reducing the information available to the public, as the numbers and complexity of the budget grow.

Instead the budget seeks to live on debt and on increased taxes on both businesses and workers.

But beyond that, something else stinks.

The budget proposes to raise Government revenues by increasing the foreign exchange tax and the stamp duty payable on estates.  Both of these target Bermudians. Neither of them were described in any detail in the budget.

Were they trial balloons?  Are they being held in reserve for when Government inevitably starts to blow through the budget?  Are the effects so heinous that they hope to wiggle through the Budget Debate without talking about them?

On top of that, the local TV news is reporting that Government has been considering pushing the civil service into work furloughs as a way to save money.  Hmm.  At last some of the unions are waking up.

Seriously, and just a few weeks ago Dr. Brown was considering asking for a pay increase for MPs?  Hmm.

Now I know why Government’s CITV doesn’t broadcast Parliament live.  It would show the panic in the PLP parliamentarians’ eyes (and the low quality of the debate).

Do the PLP think we are idiots?  That we can’t do math?  The man on the street knows when his pocket feels lighter – and the disgust is growing and growing.

The chickens are coming home to roost.  Time to clean house.  We can’t afford it any more.

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Sinking, Saved, Sold

March 2nd, 2010 · Economy

Butterfield Bank has announced a $213 million loss for 2009, the departure of its CEO, and a huge external investment of $550 million.  No surprise given the hair rising rumours that have been floating around in recent weeks (reflected in the steep BSX share price decline).

The Minister of Finance tries to put a happy face on it:

“Their partnership with Butterfield Bank is a positive development for Bermuda’s financial sector and the equity capital commitment represents a long term vote of confidence in our jurisdiction as an international financial centre.”

While the bailout is happy news for the Bank … it is glum for the Bank’s many local investors who will be heavily diluted if not wiped out. (The $550 million of new equity gives the new overseas investors 82.5% of the Bank’s ownership).  This is wretched hard news for the local investors, coming on top of Bermuda’s already sick economy.

This leaves Capital G as Bermuda’s only remaining Bermudian-owned Bank.

(Note that $90 million of Butterfield’s heartaches are caused by non performing loans in the Bermuda hospitality sector.  But wait, that can’t be true.  Don’t know about the rest of you, but the Doc insists he’s having a Platinum Period!)

Update:  from a reader … “the moral of the story is that stakeholders should raise bloody hell when management is not performing.  That goes for both banks and governments.  Bermudians have been very passive.”

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Your Pocket

March 2nd, 2010 · Bermuda Politics, Economy

In its disappointing 2010 budget, the Bermuda Government has raised payroll tax by 2%, to be shared equally by the employer and employee.

That means that the employee’s tax just went up by 21%.

The employer’s tax (they pay a larger amount than the employee) just went up by 9%.

The average income in Bermuda is $55,ooo … so the employee takes home $51,837.50 and the job costs the employer $60,637.50 before benefits are added in.

This hurts the individual taxpayer, and makes it less likely that new jobs will be added in Bermuda.  You can assume that additional mid-level professional jobs will be outsourced overseas.

Government has also raised the cap for payroll tax to $750,000.  This raises the spectre that additional upper-level professional jobs will also shift away from Bermuda – also eroding the support positions that go with them.

The budget has shown that Government will not restrain its deficit spending, and has no ideas on how to raise revenue other than hiking payroll tax.  That’s not encouraging, in a year when Government predicts that employment in Bermuda will fall to levels last seen in 2005.

A squeeze all round, well, except for Government which cackles along on its unabated spending spree.  Minister Burgess exhorts “Thank God for Paula Cox!”.  Indeed, she just ensured that the party train keeps on rolling.

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Bermuda Second

February 28th, 2010 · Bermuda Politics, Media

It appears that journalist Roger Crombie has been term limited out.

This is a bad and self-defeating move:  he’s the best known business journalist associated with Bermuda, and his coverage of Bermuda’s international sector has contributed significantly to the island’s reputation and growth.  He is well respected, and conversant with the leaders of all aspects of our international business, from the Bermuda-based executives themselves to the wide array of analysts and “gateway” advisers who refer business to Bermuda.

He also seems to really love Bermuda … and that translates into media power that no PR firm or marketing budget can provide.

The expulsion sends this message to many people:  if you are an expat, no matter how much you contribute to Bermuda’s success, piss off the wrong person and it’s sayonara time.

He makes this point regarding the futility of term limits:

Bermuda first implies that there’s a second. The idea behind work permit term limits has somehow been transduced into a political punishment, almost exclusively visited on local employers…

Every other country in the world is desperately trying to hang on to talent, because the competition for the best is intense. Bermuda doesn’t seem to want the best any longer. In the long run, that can only mean one thing: Bermuda second.

We’ve been through this before, when another talented business journalist was shown the door through rough politics and an enemy was made in a way that is reflected in nearly every issue of his offshore publications.  Mr. Crombie doesn’t seem to hold that enmity, but his departure will be our loss.

Update:  a reader points out that the Bermuda Government itself has hired Mr. Crombie to ghostwrite many of its publications.

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Budget 2010

February 26th, 2010 · Bermuda Politics

Some comments on the budget, projected at $1.2 billion (including $1.05 billion of revenue).  At 39 pages (down from 48 last year), it continues the negative trend of providing less information as the dollar amounts get bigger.

The economic dislocation and the financial turmoil of the last two years was a one in 100 year event. No one could have predicted it.

Actually many people predicted it, including the UBP who repeatedly warned of the increasing problems and were brushed off with Plantation rhetoric.

So much for austerity – this is nearly a 10% growth in expenditure! Same old – and you can bet they will blow through that given the past record.

They will allow exempt companies to buy into tourism fractional units for employee housing. Hmm.

They will allow people in hardship to raid their pensions.  Seems horribly ill-advised … creating bigger problems in the future (oh, I forgot, that’s the PLP way!)

In 2010–2011, Government proposes to increase payroll tax, foreign currency purchase tax, stamp duty on estates, vehicle licenses and implement the biennial review of government fees.

No information is provided on the hikes in estate stamp duty or forex tax.  That’s worrisome.  Payroll tax goes up 2 percent to 16 percent … and the cap is raised all the way to $750,000.  Employers will hate that – bye bye job growth.

Just think:  the $100 million in extra taxes that will come out of our pockets is dwarfed by the over expenditures on recent PLP boondoggles.  Puts the impact of their poor management into perspective doesn’t it?  Our pain, their gain.

Bupkiss for retailers.  The line that “we can’t have Reid Street prosper while North Street suffers” is BS … both are in dire straits thanks to the PLP chicanery.

They seem to believe that Government expenditure is the key to reviving the economy, particularly through capital projects (which are not described in any detail here).  That’s risky given their terrible track record in this area.  My belief is that they should have loosened the burden on business to help drive the economy into recovery, rather than increase the costs even more.

And you knew it was coming:  the Government Loans Act will be amended to provide an additional buffer of $250 million to the statutory debt ceiling, taking the ceiling to $1.25 billion. Pure platinum.  No information on what the current debt levels are, except that they will borrow another 145 million this year and debt payments are now in excess of 38 million a year (more than the budgets of many Ministries).  At least, they have started making contributions to the Sinking Fund again.

Personally at a first read, I find the Budget neither bold nor reassuring, nor particularly informative.  There is little sign that they intend to change the status quo, ie spending beyond our means and driving up the costs of living in little ole Bermuda.

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Time to Clean House

February 25th, 2010 · Bermuda Politics

Politics.bm has an important post on the Southlands fiasco.  I encourage you to read it, pass it on, post it to Facebook, and most importantly start asking questions about the actions of the Bermuda Government.

In the past 10 years our Government budget has doubled yet still runs at a deficit, our national debt has metastasized like a cancer, and more than half our public sector audits have shown dangerous lack of controls.  We talk of Platinum and Gold Standards, but accept Rust.

We have a hurricane of money, whether misspent, misdirected, or just plain missing.  You have to ask if this is due to incompetence or negligence, or is it due to ethical challenges?

The global recession did not cause the trainwreck facing Bermuda.  It simply removed the fat and pushed all the hijinks to the surface.  We can now feel the money that has been removed from our pockets.  The jobs that have been lost.  The comfort that has been eroded.  The future that has been damaged.

The economy may turn around, but Bermuda is now carrying a burden that will span generations.  It was a great party for an elite.  But you have to pay the bill for it.

While it is convenient to blame a distant and impersonal recession, I think even the most steadfast booster must realise with great disappointment and pain that the blame lies closer to home.

Much of the Bermudian population has allowed the excess to occur because they want the PLP to succeed.  But when will the PLP put the foot down to say that this situation is metastasizing and will destroy our economy?  Is the PLP Government even the PLP of popular memory any more?

Every situation has a tipping point, and sooner or later Bermuda’s population will turn its back on the PLP if it cannot get its house in order.  They’ve had several second chances … but all signs are the orgy is continuing.

You can’t afford it anymore.  It’s time to clean house.

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Sobering

February 24th, 2010 · Bermuda Politics

So, all signs are that the Southlands/Morgan’s Point deal is crumbling due to political interference and backroom tinkering.  Is this any surprise?  The pattern is well established.

Government’s tactic now seems to be to belittle Brian Dupperault and the Southlands team.  In my opinion, the question is:  who are you going to trust … the executive who has a reputation for building industries that make Bermuda’s economy prosper, or the politicians who have a reputation for overseeing their decline?

Also, the gloomy analysis from economist Craig Simmons is sobering.  Again, no surprise here.  Many voices in the community have been warning of the dangers of the PLP’s behaviour for years, but have been fended off by the Government’s unfounded platinum optimism.

Surprise:  investors and business people are abandoning Bermuda because their rational analysis says SOMETHING IS WRONG HERE, not because of the insider plots of racism or partisanship claimed by the PLP leadership to cover their management inadequacies.  The world sees we have governance issues;  when will Bermudians see it?

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Broken Systems

February 24th, 2010 · Accountability, Bermuda Politics

There has been some debate recently on Government’s affection for the negative resolution.  That is, they embed in a law the ability for a Minister to amend the law directly.  The idea is that rather than schedule a full blown debate on amendments by routine, the Minister can table the proposed change in Parliament.  If no-one objects within 21 days the amendment becomes law.

Sounds logical.  But the art is in the detail.

MP John Barritt notes that:

I did a quick check of Bermuda laws online and totted up 75 listed regulations, orders or notices for the year 2009.  I also perused the Minutes of the House of Assembly for 2009 and found that only 15 were recorded as having been tabled or laid before the House.

If this is true, the negative resolution process is being neglectfully followed … and may even be prone to abuse. Can you imagine many democracies in the world where this would be acceptable?

Parliament is not doing its job, and this is yet another Bermuda system that is broken.

There’s rust on dat der platinum.

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