• As predicted, the Premier is brushing off the criticism as personal and not related to the controversies over his leadership.
• The loyalists and FoE’s are saying what a swell guy the Premier is.  He’s misunderstood!
• The dissenters are saying, no, we’re not against the Party Leader.  And then detailing why they feel that change is required.

The PLP chairman seems to hint that the Party may seek to discipline members that act outside their Constitution.  Umm, forgive me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t Dr. Brown part of the similar palace coup that led to Jennifer Smith’s ouster, and eventually paved the way to his becoming Premier?

It is undeniable that there are problems in the conduct of Bermuda’s governance.  The fact that these are coming to light, something new every month, are not the result of a cabal of opposition extremists or a media conspiracy.  The PLP’s energy would be better directed towards cleaning up those problems, than in consuming its public goodwill trying to hide or “spin” them away or to suppress dissent.

The PLP has a considerable pool of support based on its historical role in the Bermuda community, and the power of identity politics here.  But that goodwill is not a bottomless bucket.  Sure, they have accomplishments to highlight.  But, after 10 years in power, many people are expecting better.

(see comment below)

And, in truth, a splinter might be the best thing that could ever happen to our country.

Bermuda is locked in an unhealthy duopoly.  The PLP evades all accountability, and defangs the UBP, using the shield of race.  The sins of the past are used to justify the sins and failures of today.  On the other side, the UBP is unprepared for its role in Opposition and has not fostered new leadership that the community trusts.

The best thing for Bermuda at this time would be for splinters from both sides of the aisle to unite in a new political movement.  That way, debates could take place on Bermuda’s current issues and governance, instead of dancing around this miserable mess of grudges, brinksmanship, and self-interest we have today.

The fate of the PLP and the UBP are not important.  Good government for all of Bermuda is.  The community is crying out for an “Obama moment” of change and hope.

See Johnny Star and Kitesurfer and The Full Elvis and the Longtail for another perspective.

A look at a few examples of the rhetoric at the rallies and in the campaign generally makes it clear that voters were being asked to make an affirmation of their [group or racial] identity with their vote not simply returning an incumbent government to power or making a statement of party loyalty…

The effect of such identity appeals is that a voter no longer responds continuously to small differences between candidate platforms. Rather, a voter sticks with the candidate favored by her social group until the difference between platforms exceeds some threshold of magnitude that is [itself raised by] the intensity of group-based rhetoric.

The reasons for the sudden increase in race-based rhetoric by the PLP in the lead up to our 2008 election are obvious. Credible allegations of corruption were harming the PLP’s claims to be responsible managers, while the UBP was staking its campaign on a detailed platform of managerial tasks. By emotionally refocussing on group identity, the PLP rendered the UBP’s campaign irrelevant. Ironically, the UBP’s tactic of pursuing a calm tone, probably worked against them as it appeared wishy-washy against the intensity of the PLP rhetoric.

It is questionable whether the UBP will ever be able to “prove itself reformed” and vaccinated against such attacks. Indeed, the authors of this dissertation predict that the dynamics of group politics are typically broken by the increased participation of independent candidates. How that will happen in Bermuda is not clear. But it is certainly why the PLP whip is so tight: if parliamentary members diverge, it breaks the illusion of unity. That’s why Renee Webb became untouchable when she started to speak her mind. It’s why independent-minded Stuart Hayward drives them nuts.

A natural result is that it never hurts competing candidates to engage in maximal group rhetoric, at least so long as political speech is costless.

This dynamic explains a few other PLP moves as well. CITV and HOTT are important vehicles for expressing group identity in the PLP terms. In fact, I think popular DJ Thaao Dill got shortchanged with his Senatorship: I do not believe that Ewart Brown would have been re-elected without his constant and affable boosting of the premier to his on-air “family.”

It also explains why Dr. Brown has sharpened his knives for the Royal Gazette and other third-party media in Bermuda: given the weakness of the UBP, the media are the sole independent voice in Bermuda. They are the sole questioners of his performance as well as the “costs of his political speech.” Dr. Brown feels so threatened by them that he feels his only options are to use Government powers to kill them or to replace them with an entity that sees the world through his lens of “group identity.”